Musings on Baseball: The Pitcher Win

Many of the serious baseball analysts I read and listen to deride the pitcher win stat, saying that it says very little about how well a pitcher actually pitched, especially since starters rarely pitch more than six innings.  There are so many other people playing the game and so many other variables that go into winning a game that giving one player credit for the win is just ridiculous.  I am in complete agreement with this assessment.  When I hear people on the radio or television saying, "So-and-so is going for his fifth consecutive win," or "Such-and-such is still looking for his first win of the season," I find myself screaming at the voices who can't hear me, "That doesn't mean anything!"  However, I think the pitcher win is here to stay.

Let's look at three statements:
(1)  Pitcher X has a win in 7 of his last 10 outings.
(2)  Pitcher X has a quality start in 7 of his last 10 outings.
(3)  Pitcher X has a Game Score of 70 or higher in 7 of his last 10 outings.

What do these three statements actually tell us about how well Pitcher X actually pitched?

In order to get a win, a pitcher must be the pitcher of record after the fifth inning.  To be the pitcher of record a pitcher must be the pitcher who was pitching when his team gained the lead for good.  So, if a team took the lead in the first inning and never surrendered it, the pitcher who pitched the fifth inning would get the win.  If a team took the lead in the eighth inning and never surrendered it, the pitcher who pitched the eighth inning would get the win.  (It's a little more nuanced and complex than that, but that's the gist of it.)  So for a starter to get a win, he has to pitch at least five innings, have a lineup behind him that scores more runs than his gives up, and have the relievers that come after him not give up the lead.

With so many variables in play, the pitcher win can be a pretty fickle stat.  Sometimes, the pitcher who pitches the worst in a game is the one who gets the win.  This happened on the first day of the season this year.  Justin Verlander pitched eight shutout innings for the Detroit Tigers.  Jose Valverde came in to pitch the ninth inning with a 2-0 lead.  He proceeded to give up two runs in the top of the ninth.  The Tigers scored a run in the bottom of the ninth to win the game, but because Valverde was now the pitcher of record, he was the pitcher awarded with the win.  But who was more deserving of the win, the pitcher who gave up 0 runs in 8 innings or the one who gave up 2 runs in 1 inning?

Also, lack of run support can lead to a pitcher not getting any wins.  In 2007, San Francisco Giants pitcher Matt Cain was one of the best pitchers in the National League.  He was among the league leaders in several pitching stats.  Except wins.  Because of the Giants' anemic bats, Matt Cain got a measly 7 wins in 2007.  In 2008 he was just as good, and even tied for the league lead in games started.  He got a whopping 8 wins.  Meanwhile, in 2007, Jamie Moyer of the Philadelphia Phillies pitched almost exactly the same number of innings as Matt Cain, yet gave up more hits and more runs than Cain while striking out fewer batters.  His win total?  14.

So statement 1 says that Pitcher X pitched at least 5 innings in those 7 games and got good run support.

In order to get a quality start, a pitcher must pitch at least 6 innings and give up fewer than 3 earned runs.  (For those of you not in the know, an earned run is a run that has been determined to be the fault of the pitcher.  Unearned runs are runs that are not the fault of the pitcher, usually scoring as a direct result of an error on the part of one of the fielders.  The idea being that a pitcher should not be penalized for the failures of his defense.)  If a starter pitches a quality start, he puts his team in a good position to win the game.  In April of this month, teams whose pitchers got a quality start had a combined .648 winning percentage.  That comes to 105 wins in a 162 game season.  To put that into perspective, the Philadelphia Phillies last year had the most wins in baseball with 102.

The big advantage of the quality start is that it completely removes run support from the equation.  And it's hard to be dissatisfied with your pitcher's performance if he gets a quality start.  However, the quality start is still imperfect.  It ignores unearned runs.  Also, if a pitcher does the bare minimum requirements for a quality start, his stats end up being pretty pedestrian.  Also, a pitcher who pitches 9 innings but gives up 4 runs does not get credit for a quality start, even though that's an overall better performance than a six inning three run start.

In 2007, Matt Cain had 22 quality starts, tied for sixth in the league.  (Jamie Moyer had 18.)  He had a quality start 69% of the time.  In 2008 he had 21 quality starts.  While they don't tell the whole story, his quality start totals are a much better indicator of his performance than his win totals.

So statement 2 says that Pitcher X pitched at least 6 innings in those 7 games and gave up no more than 3 earned runs in each one.  (Or, pitched like Matt Cain in 2007.)

Game Score is a statistic that was developed by baseball statistician Bill James.  It awards points for innings pitched and strikeouts, and subtracts points for walks, hits, and runs allowed.  Most quality starts get game scores in the upper 50s and 60s, with an average around 64.  A game in which a pitcher pitched 7 innings with 1 run, 4 hits, 1 walk, and 6 strikeouts would get a Game Score of 70.  That is a really nice outing, one that fantasy baseball players covet.  Roughly one quarter of all quality starts have a score of 70 or better.

Last year, Justin Verlander led the majors with a 65.9 average Game Score.  The first game of the season where he was brilliant but did not get the win, he scored an 84.  In 2007, Matt Cain had an average Game Score of 54.7, good for ninth in the league.  This year to date, Cliff Lee is the highest ranked pitcher in average Game Score with exactly 10 starts.  In those 10 starts he has 0 wins, 7 quality starts, and 3 games in which he got a Game Score of 70 or better.

So statement 3 says that Pitcher X pitched like an ace 7 out of the last 10 games.  And unless the other 3 games were really ugly, over his last 10 games, Pitcher X has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

If I was to rank the three statements as to how much they actually tell us about Pitcher X's performance over his last 10 starts, I would rank them 3, 2, 1.  But if I was to rank them how they sound to a casual fan, the rankings would reverse.  Because I am guessing that only the hardcore stat-heads are even aware of or interested in Game Score and a score of 70 doesn't mean much without any context.  Quality start sounds better but unspectacular.

But when I say that Pitcher X won 7 of his last 10 starts, it sounds amazing.  It says that Pitcher X is a dominating force.  It says that when Pitcher X starts, his team has at worst a .700 winning percentage.  It says Pitcher X will carry his team to victory because Pitcher X is a Winner!  And after all, isn't it all about winning?

Which is why the pitcher win is here to stay.  No amount of number crunching will ever sound better than, "Pitcher X got a win!"

The Baseball Season Cometh

The start of the baseball season is four days away, and I can't wait. I'm getting my fantasy teams in order and looking forward to the games in which my favorite teams crush my hated teams. Which teams are those? Well, I'll tell you. Here are three teams that I want to succeed this year and three teams I want to fail.

Teams I Want to Succeed

1 - Texas Rangers

This should be no surprise to anyone who read my blog post from October 22nd last year. I have followed the team for almost twenty years and I have no plans to stop. And now they have an American League pendant to show for their efforts. But even if they had finished in the cellar last year, they would still top this list and many more in years to come. Here's hoping they go all the way this year.

2 - Los Angeles Dodgers

I freely admit that this is a choice of convenience and a bit of bandwagon hopping. I officially moved to the LA area in 2004. During that time the Angels were enjoying an impressive streak of success atop the American League West. Most of my friends were Angels fans. It would have been easy to switch allegiances and only my family would have thought less of me. But I held my ground. But there was this other team in town, one that played in the National League. Much like the Angels, though to a lesser degree, they were enjoying a nice run of success. Having no official ties to any other National League teams, I decided to officially pledge allegiance to Dodger blue. And it sure didn't hurt that their best player has the same name as me.

3 - Tampa Bay Rays

For their first ten years of existence, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were the laughingstock of Major League Baseball. They were bad. Really bad. But in the spring of 2008, amidst the hoopla of them exorcising the Devil from their name, I took a long hard look at their roster. To my surprise, I realized that they had quite a collection of quality and intriguing young talent across the board. I figured that at this point they had the experience to put it all together and finally play some serious baseball. I was right, and they went to the World Series that year. Ever since that Spring I have enjoyed pulling for the David in Tampa Bay to defeat the Goliaths in New York and Boston.

Teams I Want to Fail

1 - New York Yankees

They are the Evil Empire. They beat my Rangers the first three times the Rangers made it to the postseason. They overpay for players which drives the market up and takes players I want for my teams. And then if these contracts go sour due to poor performance, they are not handcuffed financially and can go out and make more overpriced acquisitions. And the attitude I get from the Yankees Nation is one of entitlement - as if they deserve to win the World Series every year, and when they don't it is as if they have been denied their birthright.

2 - San Francisco Giants

They are the sworn enemies of my Dodgers, going back to the days when they both played in New York. They beat my Rangers in the World Series. At this point I'm pretty much contractually obligated to hate them. Besides, giants are for slaying and are always bad guys. (And anyone who tries to bring up my favorite band to counter my argument, I should point out that they are not giants, they only might be.)

3 - Milwaukee Brewers

I actually don't have anything personal against the team. However, this year is a now-or-never year for them. They have several key players who will be free agents at the end of the season, so if it looks like they won't make the postseason, they are going into selling mode. Players they might be willing to trade to my Rangers: first baseman Prince Fielder, pitcher Zack Greinke, pitcher Shaun Marcum, and possibly pitcher Yovanni Gallardo. I also wouldn't mind it if the Florida Marlins floundered for similar reasons, as they have the wonderful pitching duo of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

How Sweet It Is

1993 marked the end of an era. Nolan Ryan, the greatest strikeout pitcher of all time, was pitching his final season. It also marked the beginning of an era, though one of less import to the national scene. In the summer of 1993 my family moved to Dallas. Having not made many friends and still waiting for the moving van to arrive with most of our stuff, we were looking for something to do. So someone decided to turn on the Ranger game. I had enjoyed watching baseball and considered myself a baseball fan, but growing up overseas meant I had no chance to follow a team or really consume anything baseball related. At that point I could maybe name half of the major league teams but didn't know any player names other than Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Mickey Mantle.

All that changed the summer of 93. Suddenly I had a team. I was immediately drawn to Juan Gonzalez (Hey, that's just like Speedy Gonzalez!) and Ivan Rodriguez (Hey, that's the same last name as the kid in The Sandlot!).* But though it was their names that initially drew my attention, it was the way they played the game - Gonzalez with his bat, Rodriguez with his glove - that held it. They were my first official sports heroes.

*Growing up in Papua New Guinea means that you don't learn things like Gonzalez and Rodriguez are common Hispanic last names.

It has been a long eighteen years, full of highs and lows (and it seems more lows than highs). But through it all I have remained faithful to my Rangers. Even a move to Southern California did not shake my allegiance. The local team that made it to the playoffs six times over the past decade did not cause my loyalty to waver. And now for the first time I can proudly say that the Rangers are headed to the World Series!

But it is more than that, because they advanced by beating the Yankees, and beating them decisively. "What's so special about the Yankees?" you may very well ask. "Sure they have the highest payroll in baseball, have a rich, storied history, and carry two notable former Rangers on their roster, but you know you're going to face the best teams in the playoffs." True. But to get a proper perspective, we have to go back to 1996.

1996 was a good year for the Rangers. The team won 90 games. Juan Gonzalez won his first of two MVP awards. Manager Johnny Oates was the co-winner of the Manager of the Year award. But what really made 1996 so special was that it was the first time in team history that the Rangers made the playoffs. Our first opponent was the Yankees. Game 1 was beautiful with the Rangers winning decisively with a score of 6-2. Unfortunately, things went downhill from there. Game 2 went into extra innings and the Yankees squeaked out a victory 5-4. The Rangers were leading game 3 until the ninth inning when the Yankees scored two unanswered runs, beating the Rangers 3-2. Game 4 was tied through six innings until the Yankees scored a run in both the 7th and 9th innings. Final score: 6-4. And the Yankees advanced to the next round. And yet games 2-4 could have gone either way, and probably would have had the Rangers lineup produced. Juan Gonzalez sure did his job. He hit .438 (which is exceptional, for those of you not in the know) with 5 home runs and 9 RBI. The rest of the team combined for a .190 batting average (which is pitiful), 1 home run and 7 RBI. Had the rest of the lineup not rolled over and died, the Rangers would have won the series easily. And of course it didn't help that the Yankees proceeded to waltz over the competition on their way to the World Series title.

Two years later we made the playoffs again. And once again we faced the Yankees in the first round. The Yankees won the series 3-0. The scores: 2-0, 3-1, 4-0. That's right, we held one of the most potent lineups in baseball to an average of three runs per game. Unfortunately, once again our just-as-if-not-more potent lineup decided it didn't like the thought of running the bases. In the second round the Cleveland Indians fared worse, giving up an average of 4.5 runs per game, and in the World Series, the San Diego Padres gave up a whopping 6.5 runs per game. The Rangers posed the biggest challenge to the Yankees that year, yet all they get out of it in the history books is "also ran" status.

And it was the same story in 1999. The Yankees won 8-0 (OK, I'll admit that one was decisive), 3-1, and 3-0. The pitching (a notorious weak spot historically for the Rangers) once again did its job in keeping the Yankee bats in check yet the Ranger bats (almost always among the best in the league) stayed home. So for the third time in four years the Rangers were little more than footnotes in postseason history while the Yankees went on to win it all.

The following years saw the Rangers aspiring to mediocrity. Alex Rodriguez, their best player, practically begged to get out of Texas. A few years later their best player did it again in the form of Mark Teixeria. They both ended up in Yankee pinstripes. Talk about adding insult to injury.

And so we find ourselves eleven seasons later, and after far too many false steps on the part of management, the Rangers are once again in the playoffs. I did not want to face the Yankees in the first round and this time it worked out and we faced off against the Tampa Bay Rays. And this time we were the victors. But the Minnesota Twins did not do their job and they let the Yankees advance. I began preparing myself for a disappointing series. I was afraid that my boys would crumble under the mystique that surrounds the Yankees. Yet the Rangers emerged victorious, and resoundingly so. Their smallest margin of victory was 5 runs. They scored twice as many runs as they surrendered. They hit more home runs. They stole more bases. With the exception of one game and one inning, they completely dominated the Yankees who are now heading back to New York with their tails between their legs.

I don't know what the future holds for this team (or even at this point who they will face in the World Series) but I am proud of my team and pleased with their accomplishments, and the way they are playing now, they can lick anyone that comes up against them.

So I think I've earned the right to say:

Rangers rule and Yankees drool!

Not to mention,

The Rangers Are Going To The World Series!